How Low (in the Presidential Primary Polls) Can She Go? Let's Assess Gabbard's Electoral Circumstances at Home and Across the Country!

Last Election: 

Gabbard coasted to reelection in 2018. In the Democratic primary, Tulsi steamrolled Anthony Tony Austin, a state and local party activist and owner of a small business consulting firm, and environmental scientist Sherry Alu Campagna to secure her party's nomination with roughly seventy-five percent of the vote. Gabbard faced off in the general election against the Republicans' sacrificial lamb: renowned crooner/television guest star/producer/writer Brian Evans. Being the electoral juggernaut that she is, Gabbard turned Evans into a tasty electoral gyro, winning back her seat with seventy-four percent of the vote.

This is Brian Evans before he took on Tulsi Gabbard.

This is Brian Evans after he took on Tulsi Gabbard.

However, the 2018 election revealed cracks in Tulsi's seemingly invincible facade. A poll conducted in 2017 showed that Gabbard's approval rating amongst Hawaiians had dropped from sixty-four percent to barely over fifty percent in the span of just two years, enticing her primary challengers to enter the race. Many believe that the decline was result of Gabbard's unwillingness to condemn the Assad regime in Syria and other strongman political leaders as well her support for many aspects of Donald Trump's foreign policy. The Hawaii State Teacher's Association even endorsed Campagna instead of Gabbard in the Democratic primary because of Gabbard's "lack of fighting for human and civil rights" and not because they opposed any of her policy positions regarding education. 

Primary Election Outlook:

Gabbard will have to slog through a slew of primaries and caucuses in 2020 should she choose to continue her quixotic presidential campaign. Three national polls released shortly after she launched her campaign in January show Gabbard registering at no higher than two percent amongst Democratic voters, and she will have a hard time raising her profile coming out of the House of Representatives.  Gabbard has pulled off electoral comebacks in the past, so it would be a mistake to completely write her off as a candidate. However, her foreign policy views and her past work with anti-gay groups are out of line with a party that has become more internationalist and hawkish against authoritarian leaders and more socially liberal. Additionally, her botched rollout and feuds with other Hawaii Democrats have killed any momentum she was able to build shortly after her announcement. Essentially, Gabbard is the Everton of the 2020 race. Both are underdogs brimming with charm and potential, but both are not quite ready for the big time because of their inability to avoid making stupid yet costly mistakes. Overall, her chances of becoming the Democratic presidential nominee and slim to none.

One gets beaten by their rivals on last minute goals. The other gets endorsed by white supremacists.

Assuming her presidential bid fails and she decides to run for reelection in Hawaii's Second Congressional District, Gabbard will face a tougher primary opponent than the two she made mince meat of in 2018.  State Senator Kai Kahele, a decorated veteran who quickly ascended the ranks of the Hawaii state legislature in the footsteps of his father, recently announced his bid for Gabbard's seat to great acclaim. The progressive website Daily Kos quickly endorsed Kahele and began fundraising on his behalf, claiming that he better represented the values of Hawaiian Democrats than Gabbard.  Additionally, Gabbard may be accused of neglecting the needs of her district by running for president. However, Gabbard is still a talented politician, and her poll numbers have improved to the point where she is now the most popular elected official in Hawaii. Her chances of surviving a primary challenge are very good.

General Election Outlook:

Hawaii's Second Congressional District is a blue as the Pacific Ocean. Should Gabbard win her party's primary, it is almost a given that she will defeat any candidate the Republicans run against her. The Cook Political Report currently rates Gabbard's seat as solidly Democratic for the 2020 Congressional elections.

Current Prediction:

It's pretty safe to say that Tulsi Gabbard will not be our next president. Hawaiian state law allows an individual to simultaneously run for two offices, though Gabbard has not yet said if she will run for Congress again should her misguided presidential campaign fall apart. If Gabbard still believes she has the chops to successfully run for higher office in the future (likely the Senate), the House of Representatives provides a wonderful platform for her to gain experience and raise her profile. Gabbard's immense popularity will probably allow her to overcome Kahele in the primary, and Gabbard will continue her career in the House for the foreseeable future. 

2016 Vote:

2016 was arguably the greatest year in Gabbard's political career. Gabbard cruised to reelection, defeating author and non-profit executive Shay Chan Hodges in the Democratic primary with over eighty percent of the vote and Republican nut-job Angela Aulani Kaaihue in the general election with approximately eighty-one percent of the vote. Gabbard also had a bill she introduced protecting children on military bases from abuse and neglect signed into law by President Obama. Perhaps most importantly, Gabbard became a minor celebrity amongst progressives when she became one of the first members of Congress to endorse Bernie Sanders for president and resigned from the DNC in protest of the organization seemingly favoring Hillary Clinton in the party's nomination process. Gabbard later gave Sanders' nomination speech at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. In the general election, Hawaii overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, giving the former cabinet member sixty-two percent of the vote compared to the real estate mogul and reality television star's thirty percent.

Campaign Finance Status:

Gabbard's campaign finances are solid. She reportedly raised over one million dollars in 2017 and 2018 for her own campaign committee and her leadership PAC and has another two million dollars on hand. Gabbard's biggest contributors included retirees, health professionals, manufacturing and distributing companies, civil servants and other public officials, and, ironically, human rights groups. Tulsi used to be quite adept at courting corporate PAC money, though she announced that she would no longer accept donations from PACs in 2017 as a way to prove her progressive bona fides.

Major Issues:

Issues that Gabbard addresses on her website include affordable housing, criminal justice reform, education, accessible and affordable health care, civil rights and equality, military veterans and service members, funding transportation and infrastructure, privacy and civil liberties, economic growth, national security, advocating for Native Hawaiians, sustainability, gun control, and hurricane preparedness. It seems like Tulsi tried to make herself seem more presidential by primarily addressing national issues while paying lip service to local concerns in order to get reelected. In 2018, the most salient issue in the primary and general elections was foreign policy, mostly as a result of Gabbard's unorthodox views.